A New Challenge for the Church and Its Mission: Global Birth Rates and Population Trends

 Introduction

This essay aims to present some demographic data in regard to the declining population in many parts of the world.  This can be an important are for consideration in missiology.  Just where might a mission agency or the Church in a certain region put its effort to address problems associated with population changes?  The essay merely probes this issue by offering the sorts of statistics that could lead to deeper discussions related to the Church and its mission.  Other issues also press on those discussions, such as what Church or ministry is already present in a country and what is it doing currently?  Changes in the Church, too, need to be considered, even the possible need to replant the Church in some area of the world (due to corruption, decline, etc.).  The focus here is only on birth rates and related issues.

Current (2025) Birth Rate in Some Regions of the World

Birth rates in many parts of the world are alarmingly low.  The following table shows live births per 1,000 people per country up to November 2025 (according to the Macrotrends website, Israel Birth Rate (1950-2025).  Note that sustainable population levels require 2.1 births per woman or 21 births per 1,000 people.  Under that number, the population will decrease in size.  First, consider regions of the world in terms of birth rates.

Name	Live Births Per 1000 People
Sub-Saharan Africa	32.821
Africa	30.91
World	17.134
Central America	16.74
North America	11.821

Birth Rates in the Middle East (2025)

I turn next to consider the Middle East.  Only two countries are meeting the requirement for a growing population by birth.  Israel falls below the sustainable population rate.  Of course, actual populations are also dependent on other factors, especially immigration and emigration.  Another important factor is longevity.

No report for Syrian Arab Republic, but the rate was 20.531 in 2022.  By contrast, China’s was 6.77, South Korea’s was 4.9, Russia’s was 8.9, and the United States of America’s was 11.0 that same year.

Name	Live Births Per 1000 People
Yemen	26.908
Iraq	26.853
Jordan	20.157
Israel	18.579
Lebanon	15.783
Iran	15.43
Saudi Arabia	14.837
Oman	14.767
Turkey	14.478
Bahrain	12.109
Kuwait	11.236
UAE	9.691
Cyprus	9.144
Qatar	8.539

Now compare Europe and North America.  In addition to factors already noted, the West’s population figures are affected by the economy, abortion, contraception, marriage, gender dysphoria, lifestyles, changing religious views and worldviews, and suicide.  The West has also seen a tremendous flow of aliens across its borders.  Thus, birth rates are only one factor to consider for any particular country and region.

Birth Rates in Europe and the United Kingdom (2025)

No report is given for Bosnia-Herzegovina, Lichtenstein, Czechia, and Slovakia.  Every country is at about half or less of a sustainable birth rate for the population.

Name	Live Births Per 1000 People
Sweden	11.485
Iceland	11.301
Denmark	11.217
Montenegro	11.107
Norway	11.101
United Kingdom	11.075
Ireland	10.969
France	10.809
Belgium	10.441
Belarus	10.439
Albania	10.435
Netherlands	10.154
Luxembourg	10.083
Switzerland	9.906
Austria	9.791
North Macedonia	9.75
Channel Islands	9.713
Estonia	9.591
Malta	9.497
Lithuania	9.481
Latvia	9.374
Germany	9.271
Romania	9.204
Hungary	9.201
Moldova	9.019
Serbia	8.909
Poland	8.851
Slovenia	8.693
Bulgaria	8.582
Finland	8.542
Ukraine	8.462
Croatia	8.189
Spain	7.743
Portugal	7.679
Italy	7.016
Greece	6.81

Two other countries to note for comparison to the above statistics are the superpowers, both of which are well below the rate of births to sustain the population without immigration.

United States	11.994
Russia	10.888

Not long ago, people were saying that the population was too large for sustaining the planet.  If that is the case, then lower birth rates are to be welcomed.  However, lower birth rates mean a country is more vulnerable to aggression from other countries, their economies might weaken, and care for others, especially perhaps the elderly members of the population, is in jeopardy.

Issues in Various Countries Related to Population

Now let’s focus the study on several countries and broaden the categories.  A number of issues affect the population’s size and trends in population growth.  Several are noted here.

·       China had the highest population in the world for a long time, but it has now been passed by India.  That is, China’s population is in decline while its neighbour is increasing.

·       Warfare is a significant factor in population size, not just because of deaths but also the willingness of families to bring children into the world at a difficult time.  Russia and Ukraine have lost significant numbers of their population.  Conflict rages from West to East Africa.  Deaths in the Iran conflict have not been reported.

·       The country with the highest life expectancy is Macao, while that with the lowest are Lesotho and Chad at 53 in 2022.

·       A country’s population must also be analysed in terms of the spread of the age of its citizens.  According to WorldStats,[1] the top ten countries with the youngest population are in Africa.  For example, Central Africa Republic (49% under 15 years of age), Niger (46.6%), and Somalia (46.6%) are the top three.  Iran is 109^th, with 22.4% under 15.  Iceland is 149^th (17.8%), the United States and Russia are 152^nd and 153^rd (both at 17.3%), China is 169^th (16%), Croatia, Germany, Macau, and Ukraine are at 13.9% (198^th to 201^st).  The final three countries in the list are Japan, 214^th (11.4%), South Korea, 215^th (10.6%), and Hong Kong, 216^th (10.5%).  The top three countries with the highest number of persons over 65 years of age are: Monaco (36.2%), Japan (29.8%), and Puerto Rico (24.7%).  The next eight countries are in Europe, and most of the countries up to the 44th country, the United States (17.9%) are in Europe.

·       Countries can grow in size simply through immigration.  The USA, Germany, and Russia are the top three countries for immigration, respectively. 

·       While normally not a significant statistic for population size, the suicide rate does matter in some countries.  In 2019, Lesotho reported the highest rate in the world at 72.0 per 100,000.

·       Abortion rates are taken from World Population Review (Abortion Rates by Country 2025).  The country with the highest rate in the world is Greenland at 84.7, followed by Vietnam at 64 and Madagascar at 60.  The country with the lowest rate is Algeria at 0.4.  Middle Eastern countries are not reported.

·       Divorce rates are provided from the USA Data Hub (Divorce Rate By Country 2024 - USA Data Hub).  Peru, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka report the lowest divorce rates at 0.2 per 1,000.  The Maldives has the highest rate at 5.5, followed by Guam at 4.3 and then Russia.  China ranks 6^th in the world.

·       Fertility rate (https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/fertility-rate) is highest in Niger (6.749), Chad (6.215), and Somalia (6.202), respectively.  It is lowest in Hong Kong (0.701), South Korea (0.778), and Puerto Rico (0.9), respectively.  A sustainable rate is 2.1 children.

·       Death rate (https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ranking/death-rate) in 2022 was highest in Ukraine (21.400), Bulgaria (18.400), and Moldova (16.609), respectively.  It was lowest in Qatar, United Arab Emirates (1.865), and Bahrain (2.476), respectively.

·       By subtracting the death rate from the birth rate we get the natural increase apart from immigration.

	Population in 2023	Fertility	Births/1,000 by mid-year in 2022	Deaths/ 1000 by mid-year in 2022	Rate of natural increase (births minus deaths)	Longevity in 2022	Immi-gration in 2015	Abortion rate per 1,000 in 2025	Suicide per 100,000 Rate 2019	Divorce Rate per 1,000 in 2024
Yemen	34,449,825	3.716	29.919	6.824	23.095	64	344,131	--	5.8	--
Israel	9,756,700	2.89	19.000	5.400	13.600	83	2,011,727	8.4	5.3	1.7
Qatar	2,716,391	1.781	9.091	1.080	8.011	82	1,687,640	--	5,8	0.8
Sweden	10,536,632	1.520	10.000	9.000	1.000	83	1,639,771	18	14.7	2.3
United Kingdom	68,350,000	1.57	10.000	9.100	0.900	82	8,543,120	20.6	7.9	1.6
Germany	84,482,267	1.455	8.800	12.700	-3.900	81	12,005,690	5.4	12.3	1.7
Greece	10,361,29	1.43	7.300	13.400	-6.100	81	1,242,514	15	5.1	1.8
China	1,410,710,000	1.175	6.770	7.370	-0.600	79	978,046	28	8.1	3.2
United States	334,914,895	1.665	11.000	9.800	1.200	77	46,627,102	14.4	16.1	2.3
Russia	143,826,130	1.416	8.900	12.900	-3.000	73	11,643,276	13.1	25.1	3.9
South Africa	60,414,495	2.341	19.310	12.032	7.278	61	3,142,511	30	23.5	0.6

·       Current expenditure on health care per capita in 2021 saw the United States in first place at $12,012.  The next highest were Switzerland at $10,897, Norway at $9,163, Monaco at $8,634,  Luxembourg at $7,636, Denmark at $7,382, and Australia at $7,055.  Germany’s was $6,626, Sweden’s was $6,901, the United Kingdom’s was $5,738, Qatar’s was $1,934, Israel’s was $4,339, Greece’s was $1,846, Russia’s was $936, China’s was $671, and South Africa’s was $584.

Higher numbers could indicate that a country was devoting more or less to helping its citizens with the important issue of their health.  Yet they may mean that the population has uninsured persons, a health crisis, or higher costs for the same care.  In such cases, driving down the cost of health care from the government may be a good goal.  Yet the matter may also be a matter of different types of government.  A socialist country would want higher contributions from the government for health care.  However, higher contributions from the government means that citizens are paying higher taxes, which means less money is being used to stimulate the economy through purchases.  The less capitalist a country is, the more likely prices will rise, and higher prices may mean higher prices for health care.  On this reckoning, socialism will require more from the government not only because of its style of governing (bigger government and expenditures) but also because it drives up prices.

·       Economic growth or decline plays a factor in a country’s population growth or decline.  The ability of couples to afford weddings is perhaps a minor factor, but the willingness of couples to marry and then to have a family is affected by the economy.  The years 2020-2024 were highly volatile economically, particularly due to Covid.  The following table provides a little insight into economic growth for several countries in 2022 and 2023.

	GDP Growth Rate in 2023	GDP Growth Rate in 2022
Yemen	--	--
Israel	2.00%	6.83%
Qatar	--	4.21%
Sweden	-0.2%	3.66%
United Kingdom	0.1%	4.35%
Germany	-0.30%	1.81%
Greece	2.01%	5.56%
China	5.20%	2.99%
United States	2.54%	1.94%
Russia	3.6%	-2.07%
South Africa	0.60%	1.91%

 

Conclusion

The world is facing a population decline.  This can be and often is a crisis.  Economic decline due to the population’s decline has a knock-on affect, such as care for the elderly.  Social instability is another fact, with some countries losing citizens and others gaining in population due to legal and illegal immigration.  Too great an immigration from a particular country or region of the world can bring major social disruption if the migrants do not assimilate into the host country’s culture (religion, values, norms, etc.).  The purpose of this brief essay has simply been to provide some data that might lead to further reflection on these issues.  One issue is whether a country with a low population under 15 is vulnerable in war in the next ten years.

From a missions perspective, population decline may indicate factors in society that reveal spiritual, emotional, and social needs.  These needs may provide opportunities to help, and a further analysis may reveal which segment of society has particular needs.  More than the number of people in a country must be considered; the trends in population growth or decline, number of persons under 15, and so forth are important data as mission agencies devote their resources to ministry in a country.  Helping the poor in Lesotho will involve helping in a population with the world’s highest suicide rate and where HIV is also very high.   Countries in Europe are declining fast while experiencing a high volume of alien migration, particularly from Islamic countries.  Ministry in Europe will change alongside the changing demographics.  Such examples only begin to scratch the surface of missiologically significant questions.

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[1] Countries with Youngest Population (2026) | WorldStats (accessed 10 May, 2026).