Among the many
challenges that grab our attention in an age of anxiety is that of a widespread
and persistent declining birthrate in so many countries—including all the ‘Western’
countries of the world. This essay
highlights some of the basic information—easily accessible online in our day—about
population statistics, trends, and birthrates.
The question is raised whether Christian faith fosters a different
worldview that leads to our valuing marriage, family, and childbirths.
The World Bank
says that a population will be sustainable if the total fertility rate (how
many births a woman has over her lifetime) is 2.3.[1] According to the statistics provided by
Database.earth, the global fertility rate peaked in 1963 at 5.0142 children per
woman from 1950 to the present. In 1950,
the rate was 4.8596. Since 1963, the
rate has steadily declined. The rate in
2023 was 2.3118.[2]
The following United Nations chart (World Factbook also posts data) lists fertility rates
for a selection of American and European countries posted by Statistics Times.[3]
|
Canada |
1.473 |
Poland |
1.476 |
UK |
1.576 |
|
USA |
1.662 |
Austria |
1.479 |
Ireland |
1.755 |
|
Mexico |
1.779 |
Greece |
1.38 |
Norway |
1.519 |
|
Uruguay |
1.478 |
Italy |
1.307 |
Sweden |
1.672 |
|
Brazil |
1.6.17 |
Portugal |
1.375 |
France |
1.784 |
|
Colombia |
1.681 |
Spain |
1.303 |
Germany |
1.538 |
In addition to
these, the statistics of certain other countries might be noted: China: 1.205;
Japan: 1.328; India: 1.982; Russia: 1.538; Australia: 1.603; Turkey: 1.854;
Iran: 1.672; Thailand: 1.31. Singapore is at 1.05. South Korea's fertility rate is a shocking 0.893, with Seoul at 0.59. Hong Kong is at 0.78.
Every country
noted above (and there are more) has a negative birth rate. Two countries in Africa have a slightly
negative birth rate: Morocco (2.243) and South Africa (2.294). Every other country in Africa has a positive
birth rate—over the 2.3 number. The
highest birth rates are in Niger (6.596) and Chad (6.033). Central Africa Republic, Congo, Angola, and
Somalia are also high, between 5 and 6 births per woman.
What does a
declining population mean for society?
One might argue that the world is already overpopulated, and a declining
population is good news. Overpopulation
affects the use of resources, the earth’s pollution, and the possibility of
conflict and warfare. Raw numbers, however,
are not the only data to consider. The
trajectories and dynamics of change must also be considered.
According to
Isabel Schnabel, executive board member of the European Central Bank, warns
that a decline in the global population will drive up the cost of labour, drive
down global productivity, and therefore drive up inflation.[4] A shrinking population, especially when
people are living longer, will place a greater burden on the working, younger
population to support the elderly.[5] Other than the birth rate, the problem will
be exacerbated by anything affecting the ratio of the younger population to the
older: diseases, suicides, urban violence and deaths, and drug overdoses.
A declining
birth rate may be due to various factors other than choice, such as fertility
and the health of the mother during pregnancy.
(As to population statistics, young children may not survive in contexts
where nutrition and health care are issues, but often such countries have a
culture that, despite poverty, approves of large families.) Discussing the situation in European
countries, Madeleine Armstrong argues that government social programmes and
policies to aid parents and children, perhaps good in themselves, do not
improve the fertility rates in a country, but the strength of the economy does.[6] She cites Sweden’s falling fertility rate
despite generous policies for families, whereas Britain’s fertility rate
increased after Margaret Thatcher froze child benefits in 1987 in order to
improve the economy. (A very different
Britain today has an unsustainably low fertility rate of 1.576.) Her conclusion is that ‘What
it can do is help people to feel more hopeful about the future by supporting
economic growth.’[7]
This may well be
a major factor for the current discussion of fertility rates in Europe.
It does not seem to be a reason for low fertility rates everywhere today or at
all times. In Jesus' day, low rates of marriage and fertility were
notable in certain parts of the Roman Empire. Tacitus, a 1st/2nd c.
AD Roman historian, mentions a similar problem during the reigns of the Roman
emperors Augustus and Tiberius. Certain laws were passed to encourage
marriage and childbirth. In 18 BC,
Augustus introduced the Lex Julia de
maritandis ordinibus, which required citizens of Rome to marry and limited
marriage across social boundaries. The next year, the Lex Julia de adulteriis coercendis established
the punishment for adultery as separation and banishment, and some of their
property was confiscated. A father was in his legal rights to kill his
daughter and her adulterous partner, and a husband could kill the partner and
was required to divorce his wife. In AD 9, the Lex Poppaea included various provisions, including the
promotion of marriage by stipulating that a celibate person could not inherit
unless he married within 100 days of the will’s effect. The Lex Julia legislation allowed a
widow or widower one year to remarry, and a divorced woman was given six
months, but the Lex Poppaea extended
the time to two years and one and a half years, respectively. It further
restricted the inheritance to childless couples to only half of what was
bequeathed. Tacitus tells us that, in Tiberius’ time, marriage and
childbearing was still not popular (Annals III.25)—such
legislation proved ineffective, except possibly increasing the practice of
adopting someone for inheritance purposes.
Abortion is a
major factor affecting statistics on births per female. It is not only a common practice in Western
countries but also in countries like Russia and China. According to Worldometer, more than 44.6 million
abortions were performed in 2023, and this marked the fifth consecutive year in
which abortion was the world’s leading cause of death.[8] According to World Population Review, ‘roughly
73 million induced abortions occur worldwide each year….’[9] The statistics for several countries for the
abortion rate are:
China: 24.2; Russia: 53.7; Japan: 12.3; Vietnam: 35.2; Australia:
19.7; New Zealand: 19.7; India: 3.1; Romania: 27.8; Italy: 10.6; Norway: 15.2; Sweden:
20.2; Finland: 11.1; Germany: 7.8; France: 16.9; United Kingdom: 17; United
States: 20.8; Canada: 15.2; Mexico: 0.1; Cuba: 24.8
Figures are not
reported for the Middle East, South America, or Africa, except that South
Africa’s rate is 4.5. The wide spectrum
of abortion rates in countries permitting abortion suggests that culture and
ethics play a major role in fertility rates and raise questions about which
groups (age, education, ethnicity, religion) in the countries practice abortion
and why they do.
Despite the falling fertility rates in so many countries, the world’s population is growing. In 1800, the world’s population is estimated to have been 1 billion, whereas today it is just over 8 billion.[10] Our World in Data provides the following map and numbers of the current populations of countries in the world:
Populations
per country, February 2024, Our World in
Data[11]
The growth and the growth rate of the world’s
population is graphed as follows:
Population growth and growth rate of the world’s population, Our World in Data[12]
While we see
trends in such data, we should also recognise that population statistics are affected
by many factors and differ by region and over time. Plague decimated the European population in
the 14th century. Warfare at
times reduces a country’s population.
What, however, causes a population to decline by choice?
One answer might
be given by the 3rd century BC, Greek historian Polybius (c. 200-c.
117 BC). In a brief reflection on divine
versus human control of history, he argues that humans are responsible for many
things that happen. Of interest is his
example, which is relevant to our time as well.
Polybius says that there was a decline in population not due to wars or
diseases but to people simply not marrying and having children, or to people
only having enough children to sustain the population. The reason for this, he suggests, was that
people wanted a life of ease and pleasure rather than raising families. He writes,
In our time all Greece was visited by a dearth of children and
generally a decay of population, owing to which the cities were denuded of
inhabitants, and a failure of productiveness resulted, though there were no
long-continued wars or serious pestilences among us. If, then, any one had
advised our sending to ask the gods in regard to this, what we were to do or
say in order to become more numerous and better fill our cities,—would he not
have seemed a futile person, when the cause was manifest and the cure in our
own hands? For this evil grew upon us rapidly, and without attracting
attention, by our men becoming perverted to a passion for show and money and
the pleasures of an idle life, and accordingly either not marrying at all, or,
if they did marry, refusing to rear the children that were born, or at most one
or two out of a great number, for the sake of leaving them well off or bringing
them up in extravagant luxury. For when there are only one or two sons, it is
evident that, if war or pestilence carries off one, the houses must be left
heirless: and, like swarms of bees, little by little the cities become sparsely
inhabited and weak. On this subject there is no need to ask the gods how we are
to be relieved from such a curse: for any one in the world will tell you that
it is by the men themselves if possible changing their objects of ambition; or,
if that cannot be done, by passing laws for the preservation of infants. On
this subject there is no need of seers or prodigies (Polybius, Histories
37.9).[13]
An answer to
population growth and decline such as this could explain the population
statistics in our time and in different regions as well. The primary population growth occurs in the
third world countries, whereas the first world countries of North America,
Europe, Australia, and Asia are where populations are declining. We must be careful not to assume a single
answer to population statistics, but we might give thought to Polybius’s
suggestion.
In the West,
marriage has been severely undermined by birth control, delayed entrance to
adulthood (higher education), the increase of divorce, and the new notion in world
history that people of the same sex might marry. The cost of living, even in wealthy
countries, might deter a couple—married or not—from having children or from
having a family over the magic 2.3 number of sustainability.
The West has
also seen a change of attitude to children.
A self-seeking individual or couple, bent on self-pleasure and possibly
anxious about their own wealth, will see childbearing as a loss of freedom and
income. Tax laws that favour the
individual over the married couple or the married couple over a family will
increase the pressure on people to avoid having children. One might reasonably argue that Western
society is either neutral or even negative towards children, and one would be
hard pressed to argue that it delights in children. Indeed, the current sexualisation of children
through sex education in schools is more about adults wanting to indoctrinate
children at an early age to support their new ethic than it is to protect the
innocence of children.
The effects of a
low birth rate are potentially devastating for a culture and society, but they
might not be experienced immediately where there is significant migration, such
as in America and Europe or South Africa today.
However, while migration may keep the numbers of the population even or possibly
even increase them, it poses an economic threat that has ripple effects
throughout the population, such as care for the elderly of the indigenous
population when such care has been provided through government taxation
(national health, Medicare, Medicaid, pensions, and other programmes). Migrants not contributing to taxes, or
immigrants taking low paying jobs, will not contribute a fair share of the
social costs in health care, children’s education, and pensions. Yet migrants from countries where birth rates
are typically higher will likely produce larger families than indigenous
populations in the West that have begun to have a negative birth rate. This factor is important to examine country
by country and year by year. Still one
wonders if the decline in a Christian worldview and the increase of an
immigrant population from Muslim countries in Europe will provide some understanding
to population statistics in regard to birthrates. The migration across open borders in the
United States, on the other hand, may provide different data as many of the
migrants are from a more Christian culture in Central and South America. Even so, many of these migrants are children
without parents or single men, and an increasing number of these migrants are
from regions of the world beyond the Americas.
While several
points have been set on the table for a wider discussion here, a major point in
looking at statistics has to do with how a culture values children. One does not have to be Christian to value
marriage and family, of course, but are Christians in the West encouraging
early marriages, stable families, and the bearing of children? Do we have a theology that gives us hope to
bring children into this world? Do we
have an ethic that is not so focussed on self-security and pleasure with the
rest of Western culture that we can value children?
A simple story
in the Gospels finds an application in such a discussion. In a culture that valued children but not
their presence in the adult matters of Jesus teaching adults, Jesus said, ‘Let
the little children come to me’ (Matthew 19.13-15). There is no contextual narrowing of Jesus’
meaning; it has wide application. Jesus
valued the little children. They represented
the kind of disciple that would enter the Kingdom of Heaven. As Christians, we have considerable work to
do to value marriage (real marriage—between a man and a woman), families, and
children in a culture that attacks all three.
[1] Online: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
(accessed 7 February, 2024).
[2] See the data for each year: https://database.earth/population/fertility-rate
(accessed 7 February, 2024).
[3] Online: https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/countries-by-fertility-rate.php (accessed 7 February, 2024). Both the United Nations' and World Factbook's data are available at this site. For the statistic for Seoul, Korea, see Louis T. March, 'The South Korean conundrum: an ageing society desperate for babies,' Mercator 19 February, 2024); https://www.mercatornet.com/the_south_korean_conundrum (accessed 19 February, 2024).
[4] Cf. Louis Goss, ‘Global Population Decline Will Drive Up Inflation
Long-term, ECB’s Isabel Schnabel Says,’ Morningstar
(7 February, 2024); online: Global
population decline will drive up inflation long-term, ECB's Isabel Schnabel
says | Morningstar (accessed 7 February, 2024).
[5] Ibid.
[6] Madeleine Armstrong, ‘How to Get Brits to have more babies,’ CapX (7 February, 2024); https://capx.co/how-to-get-brits-to-have-more-babies/
(accessed 8 February, 2024).
[7] Ibid.
[8] Cf. Ryan Foley, ‘Abortion was the leading cause of death worldwide
in 2023,’ Christian Post (5 January,
2024); Abortion
was the top cause of death worldwide in 2023 | Politics News
(christianpost.com) (accessed 7 February, 2024). See the constantly updated statistics of the
Worldometer: Worldometer
- real time world statistics (archive.org) (accessed 7 February, 2024).
[9] Online: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/abortion-rates-by-country
(accessed 8 Feburary, 2024).
[10] Cf. Hannah Ritchie, Lucas Rodés-Guirao, Edouard Mathieu, Marcel
Gerber, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Joe Hasell and Max Roser, ‘Population Growth,’ Our World in Data; Population Growth - Our
World in Data (accessed 7 February, 2024).
[11] Ibid.
[12] Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie, ‘How has the world population growth
changed over time?’ Our World in Data 1
June, 2023); How
has world population growth changed over time? - Our World in Data
(accessed 7 February, 2024).
[13] Polybius, Histories, trans. Evelyn S. Shuckburgh
(London: Macmillan, 1889; reprint Bloomington 1962).
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